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3 candidate models in. 1 out.

Three models, five hundred graded calibration items each, one quality bar of 0.8. The policy has to refuse the cheap model without being told to.

Conformal lower bound at 90% coverage
ModelCost / 1kQuality floorClears bar
haiku-class$0.250.667no
sonnet-class$1.100.865yesrouted here
opus-class$5.000.935yes
Cost saved
78.0%
Bar hit rate
100.0%
Promised coverage
90.0%
Guarantee held
yes

The saving is unremarkable; every gateway can route to a cheaper model. The last two numbers are the product: a stated coverage promise, and the realised rate on traffic the policy never saw.