The quote
A premium, with the arithmetic shown
What the vendor takes into the contract negotiation, and what an underwriter would need to see to back it.
SLA quote
claims-extraction API · 95% weekly accuracy
Premium
$102,375
Expected loss
$75,833
Break-even
4.1 breaches
Tail shape
-0.500
Mean accuracy over 240 weeks is 97.2%, comfortably above the 95.0% guarantee — which is why a premium priced off the average comes out at $0 and is wrong.
14 weeks breached. Fitting the shortfall tail puts the worst week in a year at 84.8%. Annual premium $102,375 at a 35% loading.